2016 Golden Globes Predictions

ricky-gervais-golden-globes-2016So, as ever, the Globes are sure to confound. And as much as odds-makers would like to use the Golden Globes as a barometer of which way the  Academy voters will vote, it’s not the most useful tool. So, with that in mind, the following are my PREDICTIONS of how the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA) will vote, NOT who I personally think is most deserving. So no “Will win – Should win” here…I’ll save that for the SAG Awards and Oscars. This is simply a shot in the dark/guide for helping you follow along on Sunday night. Predicted winners in BOLD. And I’m only predicting the Film categories here. Half the television nominees they chose are from shows I just refuse to take the time to watch.

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Best Original Score

This years’ nominees are all pretty terrific and I certainly know which one I would choose…but keep in mind who’s voting here. Ennio’s first Western score in thirty five years is going to be too much for the HFPA to pass up. My dark horse choice is “The Revenant”, as they like to reward atypical scores from time to time.

hateful-eight-morricone-score-song-listena) Carter Burwell (Carol)
b) Alexander Desplat (The Danish Girl)
c) Ennio Morriconne (The Hateful 8)
d) Daniel Pemberton (Steve Jobs)
e) Ryuichi Sakamoto & Alva Noto (The Revenant)
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Best Screenplay
When you write a script that is being favorably compared to “All The President’s Men,” and that is as well-delivered by a cast as this, chances are it’s going to win. Dark horse is Tarantino. The HFPA loves a long movie that doesn’t feel like one, and much of that is due to his script.

rachel-mcadams-spotlight-postera) Emma Donaghue (Room)
b) Tom McCarthy & Josh Singer (Spotlight)
c) Charles Randolph & Adam McKay (The Big Short)
d) Aaron Sorkin (Steve Jobs)
e) Quentin Tarantino (The Hateful Eight)

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Best Director
This one is tricky. The HFPA loves to reward technical wizardry (“Gravity”, “Hugo”), so that would lean toward Inarritu…especially as he was not given the award last year when it was really deserved. And while it’s going to be hard for them to ignore a movie as pretty as “Carol,”  I think they will. “Revenant” for the win, “Carol” as the dark horse, with “Mad Max” pulling up on the outside.

revenant boxa) Todd Haynes (Carol)
b) Alejandro G. Inarritu (The Revenant)
c) Tom McCarthy (Spotlight)
d) George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road)
e) Ridley Scott (The Martian)

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Best Supporting Actor
Well, as good as some of these performances are, I just can’t see the HFPA ignoring Mark Rylance’s incredible work in “Bridge of Spies”.  And since everyone loves everything about Idris Elba, I’ll go with him as my outside shot.

519149950_c_oa) Paul Dano (Love & Mercy)
b) Idris Elba (Beast of No Nation)
c) Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies)
d) Michael Shannon (99 Homes)
e) Sylvester Stallone (Creed)

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Best Supporting Actress
So this is where I’m hoping for a particular outcome, but not for the right reasons. I’d like the HFPA to give it to Jane Fonda…NOT because I believe she deserves it, but because if she gets a Globe, then maybe they’ll feel they don’t need to recognize her for an Oscar, because, let’s face it…it’s one scene…one monologue really. And they REALLY like the old Hollywood guard, which is why I think they give it to her. But Mirren and Vikander have a shot here as well.

jfyoutha) Jane Fonda (Youth)
b) Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight)
c) Helen Mirren (Trumbo)
d) Alicia Vikander (Ex Machina)
e) Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs)

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Best Foreign Language Film
Yes, I’ve seen all these movies and, except for “Brand New Testament” (which is just not in the same class as the others), they are universally incredible. It doesn’t matter. “Son of Saul” is going to destroy the others in the voting. But if I had to choose a dark horse, I’d go “Mustang”  (because it’s equally incredible) or “Testament” (because it’s quirky and light).

saul-fia-movie-poster-185x170a) Brand New Testament (Belgium)
b) The Club (Chile)
c) The Fencer (Estonia)
d) Mustang (France)
e) Son of Saul (Hungary)

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Best Animated Film
My guess is the HFPA is going to want to put their mark on an award, and since I’m pretty sure everyone thinks “Inside Out” is going to win the Oscar, I’ll bet they go with “Anomalisa”.

Anomalisa-Perlasa) Anomalisa
b) The Good Dinosaur
c) Inside Out
d) The Peanuts Movie
e) Shaun The Sheep Movie

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Best Actor – Musical or Comedy
It wouldn’t be my choice, but I think Damon has the GG in the bag. It’s the kind of epic performance they love, Bale and Carrell don’t have the screen time, “Polar Bear” is unwatchable, and even I can’t explain how Pacino got a nod. Carrell as my dark horse.

Screen-Shot-2015-06-08-at-8.23.45-PM-300x300a) Christian Bale (The Big Short)
b) Steve Carrell (The Big Short)
c) Matt Damon (The Martian)
d) Al Pacino (Danny Collins)
e) Mark Ruffalo (Infinitely Polar Bear)

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Best Actress – Musical or Comedy

Who the hell knows? Let’s see…they LOVE LOVE LOVE J-Law. But they also LOVE LOVE LOVE Dame Maggie. And yet, they like to show how “hip” they are from time to time…which means Schumer. So I’ll take a shot in the dark and go with Tomlin (but watch out for J-Law). Who the hell knows?

grandmaa) Jennifer Lawrence (Joy)
b) Melissa McCarthy (Spy)
c) Amy Schumer (Trainwreck)
d) Maggie Smith (Lady In the Van)
e) Lily Tomlin (Grandma)

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Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
“Joy” is the kind of movie the HFPA loves to love, but it’s really a terrible, terrible film, so they may not be able to get away with it. Which leaves “The Big Short” or “The Martian”. All the big time cameos in the former will impress voters enough that it’ll win.

the-big-short-moviea) The Big Short
b) Joy
c) The Martian
d) Spy
e) Trainwreck

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Best Actor – Drama
The HFPA loves them some Leo, and they may want to give him a Drama Globe to go with the Comedy counterpart he won for “Wolf of Wall Street”. Dark horse? Redmayne.

the-revenant-leonardo-dicaprio-0dtvaaerfcd-480x279a) Bryan Cranston (Trumbo)
b) Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)
c) Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs)
d) Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl)
e) Will Smith (Concussion)

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Best Actress – Drama
The biggest crap shoot of the night, since any one of them (with the exception of Vikander) are deserving of the statuette. But I think since they went to the trouble of nominating her as a lead, that tips their hand, so I’ll go Ms. Steelers Giants…I mean Rooney Mara. Cate Blanchett is my back up.

carola) Cate Blanchett (Carol)
b) Brie Larson (Room)
c) Rooney Mara (Carol)
d) Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn)
e) Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)

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Best Motion Picture – Drama
Since one of my favorite films (“Brooklyn”) was pushed out by “Mad Max”, I think it would be a mistake to underestimate the HFPA’s love affair with it. That said, I think this will be a battle between “Carol” and “Spotlight”. Although I never seem to agree with the HFPA Best Drama choice, if “Spotlight” wins Best Screenplay, that’s your winner. But if Haynes wins Best Director, watch out for “Carol”.

rachel-mcadams-spotlight-postera) Carol
b) Mad Max: Fury Road
c) The Revenant
d) Room
e) Spotlight

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Written on 1/9/2016

2 thoughts on “2016 Golden Globes Predictions

  1. Kiss, kiss Jason, thanks for your thoughtful insight. This will make watching Ricky Gervais make people squirm on Sunday so much more fun.

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