Jason’s 68th Annual Emmy Awards Predictions & Predilections

68th Annual Emmy Awards
My Predictions (what will win) & My Predilections (what should win)

Admittedly, I watch more TV than just about any one I personally know…certainly more than any of my friends. Remaining single, having a giant TV, and having jobs where I pick my own hours has not afforded me much in life except the time to consume media at a ridiculous rate. That said, there are nominated shows this Emmys cycle that I have not viewed, because even I don’t have the time and patience to fit in shows I don’t give a damn about just so I can pick the Emmy winners.

So my “will win” choices for this year’s Emmys will possess more educated guesses, than my Oscar predictions, which are based on a more intimate knowledge of the process, voting bodies and political environments. So use my picks in your Emmys pool with caution (although I will note when I haven’t seen enough in a category). Regardless, I watch much more than I should…my poor eyes.

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Drama series

So, I watch three of these shows religiously, one, passively, and the other, not at all. None of that matters. “Thrones” is the best drama on television, followed closely by “Mr. Robot” (which was somehow not nominated in this category),  “Downton Abbey”, and “The Americans”. I have no idea how “Homeland” continues to appear in this category over a show like “Robot”, but…
NONE OF IT MATTERS. “Abbey” just finished its last season. It ekes out “Thrones” for that reason.

https://i2.wp.com/cartermatt.bgmyzuarasgpknxgxbrs.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/Season-4-Cast-e1376422267962.jpgNominees:
a) The Americans (FX) – about time!
b) Better Call Saul (AMC)
c) Downton Abbey (PBS)
d) Game of Thrones (HBO)
e) Homeland (Showtime)

Will win: Downton Abbey
Should Win: Game of Thrones

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Performance by an Actor in a Drama Series
There are some great performances here…although to be fair, I don’t watch “Saul” and have just begun “Bloodline”…which matters little, because neither have a chance of winning. For my money, the best performance this past season was Matthew Rhys in “The Americans”. His dad is as real and concerned and tortured as Chandler’s Coach Taylor on “FNL”, but with the added stakes of being found out and killed at any minute. Malek is sensational, as well, and could win, although I think many people consider reacting to audible inner monolgue as a form of cheating (t isn’t). Schreiber is woefully under-appreciated in “Donovan”, and if we were judging the current season of the show, I’d personally give him the statue…he’s been incredible. And Spacey…well..this last season was really about the First Lady, and his storylines were preposterous…but, he’s Kevin Spacey. So…

https://cdn.pastemagazine.com/www/articles/THE-AMERICANS-seasonthree-shockers-square.jpghttps://i2.wp.com/eticasegura.fnpi.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/kevin-spacey-house_of_cards-square.jpgNominees
a) Kyle Chandler (Bloodline)
b) Rami Malek (Mr. Robot)
c) Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul)
d) Matthew Rhys (The Americans)
e) Liev Schreiber (Ray Donovan)
f) Kevin Spacey (House of Cards)

Will win: Kevin Spacey
Should Win: Matthew Rhys

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Performance by an Actress in a Drama Series
Well, the greatest female performance(s) of the last four years belongs to Ms. Maslany. Whether or not you like “Oprhan Black”, or if you, like me, think it really jumped the shark this last season, that does not take away the fact that she creates up to seven, easily distinguishable, yet utterly believable characters every week. It’s amazing, and how it took until last year just to get her a nom is beyond me. Equally amazing is Keri Russell. Each week she brings pathos, viciousness and love for family to the high-stakes drama. Alas, neither will win. It’s Davis, Wright or Danes for the win. Wright deserves it above the other two, but Davis won the Globe, so…

Image result for tatiana maslany orphanhttps://i0.wp.com/img2.timeinc.net/people/i/2014/news/141006/viola-davis-768.jpgNominees
Claire Danes, Homeland (Showtime)
Viola Davis, How to Get Away With Murder (ABC)
Taraji P. Henson, Empire (Fox)
Tatiana Maslany, Orphan Black (BBC America)
Keri Russell, The Americans (FX)
Robin Wright, House of Cards

Will win: Viola Davis
Should Win: Tatiana Maslany

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Performance By A Supporting Actor in A Drama Series
Much as I love “Thrones”, and much as I was disappointed with this past season of “Cards”, Michael Kelly is just fantastic. Equal parts evil, considered, damaged, vulnerable, and terrified, his character is what makes me continue to watch the show. But, without “Dinklage”, Thrones is just another fantasy show, so…

https://i0.wp.com/digitalspyuk.cdnds.net/16/09/160x160/square-1456768837-hoc-401-00447r.jpegImage result for dinklage thrones squareNominees
a) Jonathan Banks, Better Call Saul (AMC)
b) Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones (HBO)
c) Kit Harington, Game of Thrones (HBO)
d) Michael Kelly, House of Cards (Netflix)
e) Ben Mendelsohn, Bloodline (Netflix)
f) Jon Voight, Ray Donovan (Showtime)

Will win: Peter Dinklage
Should Win: Michael Kelly

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Performance By A Supporting Actress in A Drama Series
I’m confused as to how “UnREAL” is classified as a drama, and “Transparent” is a comedy. That said, Maggie Smith.

Image result for smith downton squareNominees
a) Emilia Clarke, Game of Thrones (HBO)
b) Lena Headey, Game of Thrones (HBO)
c) Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey (PBS)
d) Maura Tierney, The Affair (Showtime)
e) Maisie Williams, Game of Thrones (HBO)
f) Constance Zimmer, UnREAL (Lifetime)

Will win: Maggie Smith
Should Win: Maggie Smith

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Comedy series

What’s amazing about these SEVEN(!) nominees, is the diversity of both the subject matter, the world’s in which they exist, the plethora of non-traditional networks associated with them, and NOT ONE OF THEM is called “Big Bang Theory”! This also seems to toll the death knell of the half-hour three-camera sitcom as we have always known it, since these are all single camera shows. That seems kinda sad, given the recent loss of one of the giants of the format, Garry Marshall.

That sentiment aside, “Transparent” is, perhaps, the most groundbreaking and influential comedy since “All In The Family” or “Soap” (even if it could easily be considered a drama). So, if “Transparent” wins, as it should, the Academy will have come a long way in a short time. If “Silicon Valley”, “Veep” or “Master of None” wins, I’ll be satisfied. If “Modern Family” wins, they may as well have given it to “Big Bang Theory” and it’s back the drawing board.

https://i2.wp.com/ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/A1q3+n2cmbL._UR267,200_FMJPG_.jpgNominees:
a) Black-ish (ABC)
b) Master of None (Netflix)
c) Modern Family (ABC)
d) Silicon Valley (HBO)
e) Transparent (Amazon)
f) Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt (Netflix)
g) Veep (HBO)

Will win: Transparent
Should Win: Transparent

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Performance by an Actor in a Comedy Series

It’s a slightly unfair category. Obviously Tambor is giving us a performance that will be remembered and referred to for decades…but it really is a drama…an often hilarious one, but a drama, nonetheless. So, of the other five nominees, I’d give it to Middleditch. “Silicon Valley” is one of the smartest and funniest shows on TV and he is what brings the plot back to its native absurdity.

https://i0.wp.com/digitalspyuk.cdnds.net/15/49/1024x512/landscape-1448923086-transparent-season-two-jeffrey-tambor.jpgNominees:
a) Anthony Anderson, Black-ish (ABC)
b) Aziz Ansari, Master of None (Netflix)
c) Will Forte, The Last Man on Earth (Fox)
d) William H. Macy, Shameless (Showtime)
e) Thomas Middleditch, Silicon Valley (HBO)
f) Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent (Showtime)

Will win: Jeffrey Tambor
Should Win: Jeffrey Tambor

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Performance by an Actress in a Comedy Series
I only watch two of these (although I did watch the first season of “Grace”). So, I’m guessing it’ll go to Louis-Dreyfuss, but don’t count out Schumer. There might also be a sentimental vote for Tomlin, given she’s been an active Governor of the Academy for a long time, and she’s being given the SAG Lifetime Achievement Award in March. Lots of crossover voters between the two entities.

https://i2.wp.com/gloriafeldt.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/veep.pngNominees:
a) Ellie Kemper, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt (Netflix)
b) Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep (HBO)
c) Laurie Metcalf, Getting On (HBO)
d) Tracee Ellis Ross, Black-ish (ABC)
e) Amy Schumer, Inside Amy Schumer (Comedy Central)
f) Lily Tomlin, Grace and Frankie (Netflix)

Will win: Julia Louis-Dreyfuss
Should Win: Julia Louis-Dreyfuss

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Best Supporting Actor in A Comedy Series
No bad choices here. My favorite is Braugher, although it is kind of a one-note-joke. And Anderson is a revelation in “Baskets”. But while I’m rooting for Burgess, I think Hale will get it.

Nominees:
a) Louie Anderson, Baskets (FX)
b) Andre Braugher, Brooklyn Nine-Nine (Fox)
c) Tituss Burgess, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt (Netflix)
d) Tony Hale, Veep (HBO)
e) Matt Walsh, Veep (HBO)

Will win: Tony Hale
Should Win: Tituss Burgess

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Best Supporting Actress in A Comedy Series
Amy Landecker, Amy Landecker, Amy Landecker, Amy Landecker, Amy Landecker, Amy Landecker, Amy Landecker, Amy Landecker, Amy Landecker, Amy Landecker.
Her performance in “Transparent’s” second season is the performance of a lifetime.
But she wasn’t nominated. Not enough TVQ yet, I guess…ah well. Next year. Ridiculous.
Oh, right…Janney will win.

Nominees:
a) Anna Chlumsky, Veep (HBO)
b) Gaby Hoffman, Transparent (Amazon)
c) Allison Janney, Mom (CBS)
d) Judith Light, Transparent (Amazon)
e) Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live (NBC)
f) Nicey Nash, Getting On (HBO)

Will win: Allison Janney
Should Win: Amy Landecker

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Best Limited Series
I only watched one of these (“Night Manager”) and I thought it was mostly great, but occasionally ridiculous. Based on buzz, it could be any of them

https://i1.wp.com/digitalspyuk.cdnds.net/16/12/320x320/square-1459104320-10270812-low-res-the-night-manager.jpgNominees:
a) American Crime (ABC)
b) Fargo (FX)
c) The Night Manager (AMC)
d) The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story (FX)
e) Roots (History)

Will win: Night Manager
Should Win: You tell me

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TV Movie
Not sure how “Luther” or “Holmes” are movies, but there they are. And “A Very Murray Christmas” was barely long enough to be a short. But it’s all meaningless. “All the Way” was extraordinary, historically accurate, meaningful, riveting and the kind of film voters love.

https://i2.wp.com/media2.fdncms.com/sacurrent/imager/u/magnum/2526247/all-the-way-_-hilary-bronwyn-gayle.jpgNominees:
a) A Very Murray Christmas (Netflix)
b) All the Way (HBO)
c) Confirmation (HBO)
d) Luther (BBC America)
e) Sherlock: The Abominable Bride (PBS)

Will win: “All the Way”
Should Win: “All the Way”

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Best Actor in a Limited Series or Movie
Do we need to discuss? Cranston was ridiculously good. Vance is maybe a close second, but I think this may be the biggest lock of the night.

https://i2.wp.com/i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2016/05/18/article-urn:publicid:ap.org:d65e8fc0b8ef4d968c6eb9217fa5a4ab-H9CJkDu3D7205440fbede886be8-13_634x439.jpgNominees:
a) Bryan Cranston, All the Way (HBO)
b) Benedict Cumberbatch, Sherlock: The Abominable Bride (PBS)
c) Idris Elba, Luther (BBC America)
d) Cuba Gooding, Jr., The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story (FX)
e) Tom Hiddleston, The Night Manager (AMC)
f) Courtney B. Vance, The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story (FX)

Will win: Bryan Cranston
Should Win: Bryan Cranston

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Best Actress in a Limited Series or Movie
You tell me. I didn’t see any of these except “Lady Day”. I thought McDonald was INCREDIBLE. But not sure how many people saw it. So…

https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/236x/33/5f/fc/335ffc0d05d140442b5f754ff3c5d534.jpgNominees:
a) Kirsten Dunst, Fargo (FX)
b) Felicity Huffman, American Crime (ABC)
c) Audra McDonald, Lady Day at Emerson’s Bar and Grill (HBO)
d) Sarah Paulson, The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story (FX)
e) Lili Taylor, American Crime (ABC)
f) Kerry Washington, Confirmation (HBO)

Will win: ??
Should Win: Audra McDonald (with the caveat that I have not seen most of these)

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Best Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Movie
Oy..sorry…again, only saw “Night Manager”. That said, I LOVED Laurie in it and his performance was the only reason I stuck with it throughout. And while it would be great to see Travolta win just to hear him butcher some names during his speech, I think all the OJ’s cancel each other out, and Laurie’s performance could have easily been considered a lead role.

https://i1.wp.com/pixel.nymag.com/imgs/daily/vulture/2016/05/17/recaps/17-night-manager.w529.h352.jpgNominees:
a) Sterling K. Brown, The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story (FX)
b) Hugh Laurie, The Night Manager (AMC)
c) Jesse Plemons, Fargo (FX)
d) David Schwimmer, The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story (FX)
e) John Travolta, The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story (FX)

Will win: Hugh Laurie
Should Win: Hugh Laurie

______________________________________________________________________
Best Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or Movie
Saw two. Olivia Colman might be one of my favorite television actresses ever, but you’d only know her if you watch a lot of British television (which I feast on regularly). She was, as always, perfect in “Manager”. Melissa Leo was also exceptional in “All the Way”, but, I don’t know, I feel I can see the artifice of her craft-work somehow. But, I’m thinking the Academy will go with Regina King. Just a hunch.

https://i2.wp.com/images.amcnetworks.com/amc.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/the-night-manager-105-photo-extra-angela-colman.jpg-800x600.jpgNominees:
a) Kathy Bates, American Horror Story: Hotel (FX)
b) Olivia Colman, The Night Manager (AMC)
c) Regina King, American Crime (ABC)
d) Melissa Leo, All the Way (HBO)
e) Sarah Paulson, American Horror Story: Hotel (FX)
f) Jean Smart, Fargo (FX)

Will win: Regina King
Should Win: Olivia Colman

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Outstanding Variety Talk Series
Corden is on a roll, but I don’t think it’s enough to get past John Oliver…nor should it…

https://i0.wp.com/static4.businessinsider.com/image/56dd9e3c52bcd029008b4851-480/last-week-tonight-john-oliver-special-districts.pngNominees:
a) Last Week Tonight With John Oliver
b) Comedians in Cars Getting Coffee

c)
The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon

d) The Late Late Show With James Corden

e)
Jimmy Kimmel Live

f) Real Time With Bill Maher

Will win: Last week Tonight with John Oliver
Should Win: Last Week Tonight With John Oliver

_____________________________________________________________________
Outstanding Variety Sketch Series
Schumer or K&P will win, but “Documentary Now!” is my favorite!

https://i1.wp.com/www.thewrap.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/Documentary-Now.jpgImage result for inside amy schumer squareNominees:
a) Saturday Night Live
b) Inside Amy Schumer
c) Portlandia
d) Drunk History
e)
Key & Peele
f) Documentary Now!

Will win: Amy Schumer (but Key & Peele could steal it)
Should Win: Documentary Now!

_____________________________________________________________________
Outstanding Reality Competition Series
I have no idea…I only watch Ninja Warrior (don’t judge). I think The Voice and Runway are too smug. Warrior is too…guilty a pleasure (see above). So it’s between Race, Stars and Chef. I’ll go Amazing Race.

http://vignette1.wikia.nocookie.net/amazingrace/images/4/4e/TARlogo-US23.jpg/revision/latest?cb=20141223051205Nominees:
a) American Ninja Warrior
b) The Voice

c) Project Runway

d) The Amazing Race

e) Dancing With the Stars

f)
Top Chef

Will win: The Amazing Race
Should Win: You tell me…

_____________________________________________________________________
Outstanding Direction – Drama
I mean, come on…Sapochnik made maybe the most epic and cinematic hour of television ever with the “Battle of the Bastards” – an hour that I have actually watched four times now. No one else touched it…

Nominees:
Downton Abbey • Episode 9 – Michael Engler
Game Of Thrones • Battle Of The Bastards – Miguel Sapochnik
Game Of Thrones • The Door – Jack Bender
Homeland • The Tradition Of Hospitality – Lesli Linka Glatter
The Knick • This Is All We Are – Steven Soderbergh
Ray Donovan • Exsuscito – David Hollander

Will win: GoT Battle of the Bastards
Should win: GoT Battle of the Bastards

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Outstanding Direction – Comedy
Okay, these are all funny episodes…really funny. But there is a moment of subtle humanity in “Man on the Land” that is simply astonishing, and that’s, in large part, due to the way in which Soloway went from a frenetic, fish-out-of-water, awkward, festival environment, to a quiet, yet internally explosive, interaction between two people trying to find a connection in a world that shuns both. Simply beautiful.

Nominees:
Master Of None • Parents • Aziz Ansari
Silicon Valley • Daily Active Users • Alec Berg
Silicon Valley • Founder Friendly • Mike Judge
Transparent • Man On The Land • Jill Soloway
Veep • Kissing Your Sister • Dave Mandel
Veep • Morning After • Chris Addison

Will win: Transparent – “Man On Land”
Should win: Transparent – “Man On Land”

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Outstanding Direction – Limited Series or Movie
That’s a LOT of OJ, but “All the Way” is simply too strong.

Nominees:
All The Way • HBO • Jay Roach
Fargo • Before The Law • Noah Hawley
The Night Manager • AMC • Susanne Bier
The People v. O.J. Simpson • From The Ashes Of Tragedy • Ryan Murphy
The People v. O.J. Simpson • Manna From Heaven • Anthony Hemingway
The People v. O.J. Simpson • The Race Card • John Singleton

Will win: “All the Way”
Should win: “All the Way”

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Outstanding Direction – Variety Special
It’s a Corden world right now, but Fey and Poehler won Best Guest Appearance in a Comedy last week. Personally? Oliver’s take on Prison Re-entry is awesome.

Nominees:
Inside Amy Schumer • Madonna/Whore • Comedy Central • Ryan McFaul
Last Week Tonight With John Oliver • Episode 303 • HBO • Paul Pennolino
The Late Late Show With James Corden • Post-Super Bowl Episode • CBS • Tim Mancinelli,
Saturday Night Live • Hosts: Tina Fey & Amy Poehler • NBC • Don Roy King
The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon • Episode 325 • NBC • Dave Diomedi

Will win: “SNL”
Should win: “Oliver” Epsiode 303

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Outstanding Writing – Drama
I know the award isn’t for Best Pilot, but the first ten minutes of “Mr. Robot” hooked millions of people. Say what you want about Season 2, Esmail has created a world and characters that are impossible to take your eyes off of. I think the Academy will recognize that.

Nominees:
The Americans • Persona Non Grata • Joel Field & Joe Weisberg
Downton Abbey • Episode 8 • PBS • Julian Fellowes
Game Of Thrones • Battle Of The Bastards • HBO • David Benioff & D.B. Weiss
The Good Wife • End • CBS • Robert King & Michelle King
Mr. Robot • eps1.0_hellofriend.mov (Pilot) • USA • Sam Esmail
UnREAL • Return • Lifetime • Marti Noxon & Sarah Gertrude Shapiro

Will win: “Mr. Robot”
Should win: “Mr. Robot”

_____________________________________________________________________Outstanding Outstanding Writing – Comedy
It’s quite possible that Aziz wins this award. But I think Mandel wins for “Veep”. Personally I thought “SV”‘s Uptick was hilarious, irreverent, and, somehow, even touching. It gets my vote.

Nominees:
Catastrophe • Episode 1 • Amazon • Rob Delaney & Sharon Horgan
Master Of None • Parents • Netflix • Aziz Ansari, & Alan Yang
Silicon Valley • Founder Friendly • HBO • Dan O’Keefe
Silicon Valley • The Uptick • HBO • Alec Berg
Veep • Morning After • HBO • David Mandel
Veep • Mother • HBO • Alex Gregory & Peter Huyck

Will win: “Veep” – Morning After
Should win: “Silicon Valley” – Uptickz

_____________________________________________________________________
Outstanding Writing – Limited Series or Movie
I’m out here, as I only saw “Manager”. I know, I know. They’re both in my queue. I’ll guess OJ – Race Card wins

Nominees:
Fargo • Loplop • FX Networks • Bob DeLaurentis
Fargo • Palindrome • FX Networks • Noah Hawley
The Night Manager • AMC • David Farr
The People v. O.J. Simpson • From The Ashes Of Tragedy • Scott Alexander & Larry Karaszewski,
The People v. O.J. Simpson • Marcia, Marcia, Marcia • D.V. DeVincentis
The People v. O.J. Simpson • The Race Card • FX Networks • Joe Robert Cole

Will win: “The People v. O.J. Simpson” • The Race Card
Should win: You tell me

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Outstanding Writing – Variety Special
I mean, do we really care about this award? Not sure why they kept this in Primetime Awards show and put the Award for Sketch or Variety Program in to the Creative Arts ceremonies. Anyway, Triumph’s was the funniest. Schumer’s was the most talked about.

Nominees:
Amy Schumer: Live At The Apollo • HBO • Amy Schumer
John Mulaney: The Comeback Kid • Netflix • John Mulaney
Patton Oswalt: Talking For Clapping • Netflix • Patton Oswalt
Tig Notaro: Boyish Girl Interrupted • HBO • Tig Notaro
Triumph’s Election Special 2016 • Hulu • Funny or Die (numerous writers)

Will win: “Amy Schumer: Live at The Apollo”
Should win: “Triumph’s Election Special 2016”

_____________________________________________________________________

So best of luck in your pools (really?) and have fun watching Jimmy. I’ll see you at The Governor’s Ball!

Written on 9/17/2016

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